We still envisage a fall in Q4 GDP, after a decent rebound in Q3. The combination of slowing population growth, falling employment and structural change spells bad news for property owners of most types. our economic updates delivered straight to your inbox, simply
The NZD and AUD have printed fresh highs, while EUR has surged higher as the market embraces the news on increased policy support to drive an economic recovery.The New Zealand economy is bouncing back strongly from the depths of the recession. The NZD has outperformed despite a further increase in OCR rate cut expectations ahead of RBNZ Governor Orr’s speech today. The USD made a fresh two-year low but it has recovered over the past few hours and is now slightly higher on the day. In this note we cover how offshore curves behaved around negative rates and why we think the NZGB curve should ultimately steepen, if the RBNZ goes down this route, as seems likely. As universally expected, the RBNZ kept the OCR at 0.25% at the June Monetary Policy Review. The USD is the biggest loser for the day, although there has been little sustained progress in the NZD and AUD overnight.There hasn’t been much movement overnight across equities and currencies. The USD is generally weaker, but the NZD has significantly underperformed and is trading back towards 0.65. US equity markets have mostly recovered their post-FOMC minutes sell-off, led by tech stocks. Our range of reports, commentary and insights give corporate and institutional organisations the right information to make informed financial decisions.Our team of experts specialise in macroeconomics, financial market strategy, corporate credit, technical analysis and quantitative research.We work with our NAB Group contacts in Australia, Asia and the UK to keep you informed of the latest global developments.Our research and insights are a trusted source of information for those in the know, referenced by both the local and worldwide press.A summary and analysis of developments over the previous 24 hours relevant to foreign exchange and fixed interest markets, incorporating views and an outlook for the day ahead.Commentary on the NZ economy, currency and interest rates for the upcoming week in the financial markets, including technical trading analysis on the New Zealand currency and swap rates.A review of financial market events over the past month, covering major developments in global markets, currencies and interest rates, with commentary on economic trends and drivers.A round-up of international commodity prices and their key macroeconomic drivers. Mary Jo Vergara, Economist After a strong run, we see near term consolidation ahead of a sustained 0.66-0.70 trading range developing later in the year. Our Take on the RBNZ'S August 2020 Monetary Policy Statement Please enable it or refer to the
However, interpretation will need to be mindful of measurement issues, and timing.This week’s RBNZ OCR review should be singularly unexciting. The regional split in these might prove to be the most revealing, given the latest virus outbreak is still seemingly confined to Auckland. Disappointing European PMIs led to a fall in the EUR and a rise in the USD, while the NZD held its ground, ending the week around 0.6540.